Hongdam หงส์ดำLINE

Hongdam Studio · Chiang Rai

Black Swan Event?Hongdam Studio is all ears

black swan
A big surprise. Almost nobody expects it. It changes a lot.
all ears
Listening. We want to hear your prediction.
หงส์ดำ
Hongdam in Thai: หงส์ดำ (hong dam) means black swan.

Predict Play

Photo: a small bronze swan, a hongsa (หงส์), sitting on a stepped pedestal on a wooden table in low, warm sunlight. The bird has a crest of three rounded points on its head, closed eyes, a long flat beak that curls up at the tip, a ring around its neck, a round chest and a fanned tail with carved lines. The metal is dark brown, gold where hands have rubbed it smooth, and green in the hollows. The pedestal has a band of upright marks and a cross scratched into its front. Out of focus behind it: a white wall, a dark window frame and a tan leather bag. Its shape is the shape of the old bronze bird weights of Burma and northern Thailand.
Hongsa (หงส์): the swan of Thai and Burmese art, in bronze. Photo: Nan Peacock · CC BY 4.0 = anyone may use this photo, also to make money, if they name Nan Peacock.

Toys

01

All swans are white?

Tap the pond to look. Hold to look fast.

0 white swans

02

Swan meter

Black swan = unlikely + huge.

Black swan!

How likely?
How big?

Predict this →

03

100 days

Most days are small. One day is huge.

0 calm days

Hold to run.

04

Black swan or not?

Vote. See what everyone says.

1997

Thailand: the baht falls. A money crisis spreads in Asia.

1 / 7

Your prediction

prediction = what you think will happen.

How likely?
How big?
When to check

After this date, people vote: did it happen?

Predictions

    Words

    black swan
    A big surprise. Almost nobody expects it, it changes a lot, and later people say it was easy to see.
    Nassim Taleb
    The writer who named the idea, in his 2007 book The Black Swan.
    all ears
    Listening carefully.
    Hongdam · หงส์ดำ
    Thai for black swan. Hongdam is a small company in Chiang Rai, Thailand; Hongdam Studio is its technology team.
    prediction
    What you think will happen.
    1 in 100
    Out of 100 times, it happens once.
    check date
    The month when people vote: did it happen?

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